May 2020 Alameda County Market Report

Sold! 2005 Damuth Street Dimond District 2bd | 2ba | $900K Chic style meets modern living inside this single-family home close to all the essentials! Classic hardwood floors, recessed lighting, plenty of large windows for a bright and airy feel, and an on-trend neutral color palette features throughout the home. Designed with open living in mind, the layout feels modern and generous in size. The master bedroom is the perfect place to retreat after a long day and is complete with ample closet space and a stunning ensuite with a large shower paired with a gorgeous vanity. Outside, a private fenced backyard is an ideal spot to host guests while taking in cool breezes and soaking up the summer sunshine. This home is perfectly positioned close to transportation, shopping and restaurants. The Simone Koga Group is equipped to handle your array of real estate needs. If you are also ever looking to buy or sell any commercial space, land or investment properties, don't hesitate to reach out.  Hoping you all are safe & healthy, Simone & TiYanna  Alameda County Real Estate Market Begins to Bounce Back - Slowly Market activity begins to tick up after severe shelter-in-place plunge. Median home sales prices are up. Interest rates hit new low. May 2020 Update  ------------ Shelter-in-place caused steep drops in activity across the board in what is typically the busiest selling season of the year. However, though still far below normal levels, activity has been slowly picking up since bottoming out in late March/early April, and will presumably continue to do so with the easing of both shelter-in-place and property-showing rules.  So far, Alameda County median home prices are considerably up year-over-year, but a fair proportion of the sales behind April median sales prices still reflects offers accepted prior to shelter in place.  Interest rates hit a new historic low in the last week of April. Week by Week Supply & Demand Trends  The only way to clearly perceive the recent changes in the market - sudden plunge and the beginning of recovery - is by looking at WEEKLY trends in buyer and seller activity. These are illustrated in this first chart below.  Year-over-Year Changes in Median Home Sales Prices  Generally speaking, the first months of 2020 have been characterized by year-over-year increases - often of significant magnitude - in median home sales prices across the Bay Area. Long-Term Trends in Median Home Prices - 12-Month Rolling Illustration  Monthly Supply & Demand, Year-over-Year Comparisons  The next series of charts reflects the dramatic changes in seller and buyer dynamics by MONTH as compared to spring 2019. These don't illustrate the uptick in activity in the most recent weeks. Remember that closed sales are a slightly lagging indicator of market activity.  Year-over-Year Changes in Luxury Home Markets  Mortgage Interest Rates  Unemployment  We are not going to review the economic news already extensively covered in the media, except for this stark illustration of the unparalleled rise in unemployment. How quickly this horrifying trend can be reversed will probably be the single largest factor behind an economic recovery (after the discovery of a vaccine).   Social Links are not complete Simone Koga Realtor® | DRE #: 01897985  www.SimoneKoga.com 415.706.1586 Simone@SimoneKoga.com.com © Compass 2020 ¦ All Rights Reserved by Compass ¦ Made in NYC Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Quick Market Update, April 15-22 2020

Here's your weekly market update.

Curious about what these numbers mean for you and your situation? Want to know details about your specific neighborhood? Reach out to me at simone@simonekoga.com

Heat Map Report

This heat map compares 2013 2nd quarter or 1st half median home sales prices – for houses, condos, co-ops and TICs combined, as reported to MLS – with those at the peak value time prior to the recent market recovery. Previous peak value times vary by neighborhood: typically, the least affluent neighborhoods hit peak prices in 2006 and also fell the most, percentage-wise, during the crash, falling 25% to 50%. These neighborhoods were most affected by the subprime and distressed-property sales crises. The mid-affluent neighborhoods peaked in 2007, and usually declined in value in the 20% to 25% range. And the most affluent areas reached peak values last, in the first-half of 2008 prior to the September 2008 crash: Their fall in value ranged approximately 15% to 20% from 2008 peak to 2010-2011 nadir.

Generally speaking, when the market began to turn around in late 2011/early 2012, the last neighborhoods to fall were the first to recover, followed by the mid-affluent and then the less affluent areas. All the city’s neighborhoods have made dramatic recoveries through the second quarter of 2013, but some have surged far above previous peak median sales prices and they are the red and orange colored zip codes on the map: South Beach and Yerba Buena (94105), Inner Mission and Bernal Heights (94110), the greater Noe Valley- Eureka Valley-Cole Valley area (94114 & 94117) and perhaps some of the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods (whose data is less definitive). Ochre and yellow delineate smaller increases over previous peak prices, 5% - 12%. The light-green areas, such as most of the Sunset, Parkside and Richmond districts, are back in the general range of their 2007 peak values, maybe a tad over. And the southern, blue-tinted neighborhoods are still 10% to 25% below their 2006 prices (but, like other areas, rising rapidly). Bayview (94124) is furthest below its peak, but then, with about a 50% decline, it saw the steepest drop in the city, market peak to market bottom.

Zip codes mapped white signify there wasn’t enough dependable data for a reliable analysis.

There are two different reasons for the large disparities between the zip codes: the first is that some neighborhoods are experiencing particularly white-hot buyer demand, especially by affluent high-tech buyers. The second reason is that different neighborhoods have greater amounts of decline to recoup. Those neighborhoods which declined the most in value simply have more ground to make up to get back to where they were before the market crash.

Note that if a property declined in value by 50%, it then has to go up in value 100% to get back to where it was: percentage decreases and percentage increases are not created equal.

California & the United StatesIf California or the entire country was heat-mapped, there would be oceans of differing shades of blue – home values still well below peak values – with rare, tiny bits of green here and there: According to the last published Case-Shiller Index (May 2013) and the latest California Association of Realtors median home price report (June 2013), overall state and national home prices overall are still approximately 23-25% below their 2006 peaks. Other Bay Area CountiesThe situation in the rest of the state and nation would also apply to most of the other Bay Area counties. According the latest Case-Shiller Index for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Area, all price ranges are recovering dramatically, but the lower-priced third of home sales (under $439,000), hit hard by distressed property sales in past years, would still be dark blue -- this market segment is still about 40% below peak values (as of May 2013). The middle third of sales, $439,000 to $760,000, would be an intermediate blue, at about 20% below peak prices. Most of the home sales in Alameda, Contra Costa, Sonoma and Napa counties are in these two price segments, though there are areas of significantly higher values too, edging towards green.

According to Case-Shiller, the upper third of unit sales, over $760,000, is getting close to or has again reached peak values (or, in the case of San Francisco, surpassed their peaks), so significant portions of affluent Marin and San Mateo counties would be green or close to green. Marin and San Mateo have lately been trading the title for the California county with the highest median home sales price, with May-June medians of about $1,000,000. (San Francisco’s median price is pulled down somewhat by its large percentage of condo/TIC sales. Looking just at SF house prices, the overall median price in the second quarter was about $997,000 – but there are huge variations by neighborhood, ranging from under $500,000 to $4,000,000.)

And in the most sought-after communities in the heart of Silicon Valley, such as Palo Alto, there would probably be pockets of yellow-orange. Unfortunately, our access to historical sales data there is not as easy or comprehensive as we would prefer, but that is our best guess.

Our most recent Case-Shiller Index report, with price charts, can be found here: San Francisco Metro Area Case-Shiller Index 

Though the rebound in home prices is occurring virtually everywhere in the country, San Francisco has been at the leading edge of the turnaround. Generally speaking, the city peaked in value last, recovered first and is rebounding most dramatically.

• This link goes to our recent report on White-Hot SF Districts, but note that its analyses are notcorrelated to zip codes, are specific to a single property type (house or condo), and may compare different time periods than the map above: 5 White-Hot Districts in a Red-Hot Market 
• For comparative home values throughout the Bay Area and within San Francisco by neighborhood: Bay Area Mapped Home Values Important Issues Regarding This AnalysisThe median home price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Median prices can and often do fluctuate due to other factors besides changes in value, such as inventory available to purchase, seasonality, the ratio of house to condo/TIC sales, and major changes in the distressed and luxury property segments. (All these factors apply to our sales in spring 2013.) Zip codes, which were convenient for mapping, often contain neighborhoods of widely different values and market conditions – for example, 94115 includes both Pacific Heights and Western Addition; 94118 includes Presidio Heights and Inner Richmond – thus their overall statistical result is a grab-bag blend that may not reflect the market situation throughout the zip code. Some areas have many fewer sales than others – such as 94133 (North Beach, Telegraph Hill) – and the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistics. For all these reasons and others that pertain to any statistical analysis of large numbers of relatively unique home sales with sometimes huge disparities in size, desirability of location, quality and price point, everything about this analysis should be considered approximate, with reasonable margins of error. How it applies to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis crafted to its circumstances.

What Costs How Much Where-March 2013 SF Market Update

What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco

San Francisco Home Values by Neighborhood & Bedroom Count

The March 2013 Paragon Market Report

We've just completed our semiannual review of SF house and condo values by average and median prices, average size and average dollar per square foot for sales occurring September 1, 2012 - February 28, 2013, as reported to MLS.

The maps contain median sales price data only, while the tables include the full range of value statistics. (The tables are easier to read, but they're not as colorful.) If a price is followed by a "k" it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an "m", it signifies millions. Remember that medians and averages are very general statistics.

Further down in the newsletter are charts tracking supply and demand dynamics and price appreciation trends for the city's residential real estate market. Statistical definitions can be found at the very bottom. For the smaller images, you'll need to click-to-expand them to really make them decipherable.

click for larger image	4-Bedroom House Values This is the table for 4-bedroom house sales over the past 6 months. This link goes to the full analysis by property type, neighborhood and bedroom count. Neighborhood, Property Type, Bedrooms
click for larger image	2-Bedroom Condo Median Price Map A map of median sales prices for 2-bedroom condos around the city. The table in the full analysis provides further statistical measures. Full Analysis
click for larger image	Trends in Inventory & Sales Volume Sometimes there's nothing like a chart to depict trends. Here one can clearly see the drastic decline in inventory. And this link goes to a chart on Months Supply of Inventory, another statistic of supply and demand: Months Supply of Inventory
click for larger image	New Listings Coming on Market The quantity of new listings ebbs and flows by season, however even accounting for seasonality, the number of new listings coming on market is much lower than usual. And this link shows the increasing demand since the market recovery really got underway in 2012: Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
click for larger image	Median Price Trends by Month Monthly price data often fluctuates due to a variety factors. For example, median and average prices almost always drop in January since the higher end of the market usually checks out for the holidays: Values haven't changed; the demographic of buyers and available inventory changed. However, the clear upward trajectory of prices over the past year is clear in both median and average sales prices. Average Price Trends

The MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. If there were 3 sales, at $1, $2 and $10, the median price would be $2. If there were 4 sales at $2, $2, $5 and $10, the median would be $3.50. Median sales price may be affected by seasonal trends, and by changes in inventory or buying trends, as well as by changes in value.

AVERAGE DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Generally speaking, about 60-80% of listings report square footage, and dollar per square foot statistics are based solely on those listings. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC's will be higher than a multi-unit building's (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one. The highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco are typically found in upper floor condos in prestige buildings with utterly spectacular views.

The AVERAGE SIZE of homes of the same bedroom count may vary widely by neighborhood: for example, the average size of a 4-bedroom house in Pacific Heights is much larger than one in Noe Valley; and the average of a Marina 2-bedroom condo is larger than one in South Beach. Besides the affluence factor, the era and style of construction often play large roles in these disparities.

Some neighborhoods are well known for having additional ROOMS BUILT WITHOUT PERMIT, such as the classic 1940's Sunset house with "bedrooms" and baths built out behind the garage. These additions often add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in $/sq.ft. figures.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown.

These statistics are generalities, subject to fluctuations due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value). Average figures in particular may be distorted by a few sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially where the sample size is small. Generally speaking, the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistics. Where abnormal "outlier" sales were identified that significantly distorted the statistics, these were deleted from the calculations. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in this analysis.

All information herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group, March 2013 

Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Cell (415) 706-1586 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

SOMA/South Beach Market Update

 The South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena & Mission Bay Condo Market

The Paragon Market Report

More condos sell in San Francisco's South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena and Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city: This is where by far the greatest number of new condos has been built in the last 20 years. The market here heated up very rapidly in 2012, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has dwindled (contributing to the severe inventory crunch). This area is one of the world centers for high-tech and bio-tech businesses and homebuyers, and the ferocious demand competing for the very limited inventory have caused prices to jump dramatically.

Luxury condos here, in high prestige buildings, typically with spectacular views, sell for among the highest dollar per square foot values in the city. The largest sale reported to MLS in 2012 was $7,850,000 for a unit at the Millennium.

Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 775 transactions totaling almost $700 million in sales in these neighborhoods. We've closed more than 170 sales of $1,000,000 plus, and almost two dozen of $2,000,000 or more. This is an area we know and love well.

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Sales by Price Range

Long-Term Trends in Values

The following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distressed condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach/Yerba Buena and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends.

Here, we've limited the analyses to sales under $1,800,000: though this area has a large luxury component, the very high-end sales generally distort the averages for the vast majority of sales.

Sales Over, Under and At List Price

As the market gets hotter, the percentage of listings selling for over asking price increases.

Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos

A comparison of Median Price trends for 2-BR condos in 5 of the city's neighborhoods. All 5 have been showing median price appreciation, but none more so than the South Beach and Yerba Buena neighborhoods.

Number of Listings Sold

Very strong unit sales numbers in recent quarters and they would have been significantly higher if there were more listings available to buy. Distressed condo sales are rapidly declining as the market recovery has gained momentum.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

An excellent statistic for measuring buyer demand against supply of inventory. The percentage is now at the highest point in memory.

Condos for Sale

The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years and is seriously inadequate to meet market demand.

The New-Development Condo Market

The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area: it's been estimated that over 10,000 were built here in the first 10 years of the century. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Now, new construction is recovering in a big way -- many big new projects are planned by some very well-known developers -- but it will probably take about 2 years, more or less, before we see a large quantity of newly built condos coming on the market.

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)

The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low -- below 2 months - is considered to be indicative of a strong "Seller's Market."

Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above

The number of condos selling for $1m and above is at its highest point in years: Sales increased in the 4th quarter even as inventory fell. Demand for higher-end condos in the best buildings is quite competitive now.

Distressed Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area

Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area had more distressed condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distressed listings and sales has been rapidly declining with the market turnaround and looks to disappear completely in the near future.

District 5 Update- Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley, Glen Park

Noe Valley-Eureka Valley-Cole Valley District

February 2013 Update

Paragon's market overview for San Francisco Realtor District 5, which encompasses the central city neighborhoods of Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (including the Castro), Dolores Heights, Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle

District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview.

District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the financial markets meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell 15% to 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. With the surge in high-tech buyers in 2011 (among other economic factors), many of whom wish to be close to highways to the peninsula -- and love the lifestyle and ambiance of District 5 neighborhoods and its commercial districts -- activity in this district picked up dramatically.

In 2012, the competition between qualified, motivated buyers here became ferocious: inventory is very low, certainly not enough to satisfy buyer demand, and many of the listings are selling very quickly in multiple-offer, competitive-bidding situations. This is exerting considerable upward pressure on prices.

Since opening our doors in 2004, Paragon has represented buyers and sellers in over 1500 transactions totaling $1.7 billion in sales in District 5, making us 1 of the top 2 brokers in these neighborhoods we know and love so well.

 If you adjust your screen view to a 125% zoom, the charts will be that much easier to read. On Windows systems, pressing the Control and + keys simultaneously should do this quickly.

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Homes Selling Over, Under and At List Price One of the clearest indications of the extraordinary heat of the market in these central city neighborhoods is the huge percentage of listings selling for over asking price, and often far over asking price: 1 in 4 home listings that sell is closing for 10% or more over the list price.

Home Sales by Price Range A snapshot of number of sales by price segment in 2012.

Average Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot The two statistics of value in the charts following -- average sales price and average dollar per square foot -- can change depending on a number of market factors, but the general price trend over the past year or so is clearly upward. High demand plus low supply equals higher prices. When neighborhoods are grouped together below, it is because they generally share similar market values in particular property types. Annual statistics, because of the much greater amount of data, are typically more reliable than (fluctuating) quarterly or monthly stats, however when a market is changing quickly, as it has in 2012, annual data will minimize market changes (which is why the charts show statistics from the latter part of the past year).

Luxury Home Sales Higher end home sales in the Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Cole Valley and associated neighborhoods of Realtor District 5 dramatically surged in 2012. Though prices are still significantly lower than in the old-prestige, northern neighborhoods such as Pacific and Presidio Heights, this area is playing a greater and greater role in luxury home segment. High-tech buyers are definitely playing a major role in this dynamic.

Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers

An excellent statistical snapshot of supply and demand. As the market heated up, the percentage started climbing higher in 2011 and is now at its highest level in memory.

Price Reductions, Sales Price to List Price Percentage, and Days on Market Right now, the great majority of the homes that sell in District 5 now accept offers quickly before any price reductions are necessary and on average go well over asking price. However, those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell and sell at a large discount to original list price. No matter what the market, proper pricing is a vital issue in the sale of real estate.

Homes for Sale on the Last Day of the Month 

The drastically low inventory of homes available to purchase in this area is clearly illustrated in this chart.

Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is at an extremely low level of inventory for houses and condos, a reading that would be considered indicative of a very strong "Seller's Market." Indeed anything under 3-4 months is usually considered a Seller's Market.

Average Days on Market (DOM) Before Acceptance of Offer

These figures can fluctuate without great meaningfulness -- a few listings that sell after being on the market for a long time can have a large impact on the average, even when new listings are selling very quickly -- but the trend can be interesting. Right now, many listings are accepting offers within 7-14 days of going on market.

Statistical Definitions 

All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Copyright Paragon Real Estate Group

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2012 Market Review

	San Francisco Rankings, Real Estate Prices & Trends, and the Biggest Home Sales of 2012 January 2013 Paragon Market Report Here is a look at how a diverse group of major and minor organizations have recently ranked San Francisco on a wide variety of important and whimsical measures. Where disagreements existed -- 3 different surveys ranked SF as the 1st, 2nd and 3rd "Greenest City" in America, and 2 surveys ranked us as second and third smartest city in the country -- we naturally chose the highest grade as most accurate. The ranking report is followed by some fascinating snapshots of the San Francisco and Bay Area real estate markets. Median Home Sales Prices around the Bay Area This mapped analysis calculates median prices from both distressed and non-distressed property sales around the Bay Area as reported to MLS. Median price is a very general statistic and many cities include districts of wildly varying value. For example, San Francisco contains neighborhoods whose median prices vary by over $4,000,000: The overall statistic mixes them all up together and comes up with $810,000. Maps with SF neighborhood values are included later in this report. The 2012 Rebound Exactly a year ago, we suggested that, based upon the changing market and economic dynamics we perceived developing in 2011, the SF real estate market was on the cusp of a major turnaround in 2012, possibly similar to what occurred in 1996 when the market blasted off after years of doldrums. And that is what happened, not only for the city, which led the way early in the year, but for the Bay Area, state and country somewhat later. Note that the SF house median price quoted here for 2012 is for 4th quarter non-distressed sales only.   click for larger image San Francisco Neighborhood Values This map charts median sales prices and average dollar per square foot for houses by city neighborhood. And this link goes to a map for SF condo values: SF Condo Values Map click for larger image Year over Year Changes in Values Very generally speaking, and depending on neighborhood and property type, SF home values have risen by 10% to 20% over the past year. Here is a chart assessing the surprisingly consistent change in overall SF condo value statistics and this link looks at SF house statistics. SF House Value Statistics click for larger image SF Homes Sales by Price Range One client once called this the "high-heel shoe" graph of San Francisco home prices. One of the big components of the 2012 market was the resurgence in luxury home sales, the chart for which can be found using this link: SF Luxury Home Sales click for larger image Sales by Property Type Gradually, with the addition of the big new developments in the SoMa-South Beach district (and other areas of the city), condos have become the largest single category of property type sales in the city. This trend will only accelerate with the new burst in construction plans. And this link leads to a chart showing the resurgence in unit sales. Unit sales would have been much higher in 2012 if inventory had not been so drastically low: Unit Sales Trends click for larger image Distressed Sales: Goodbye to All That Distressed home sales have been a market aberration caused by the collapse in loan underwriting standards and the refinancing frenzy of the bubble years. Fair market value is defined as "the price a willing, able and reasonably knowledgeable buyer would pay to a seller not under distress." But bank and short sales radiate distress: underwater sellers, overwhelmed and unresponsive banks; often the physical condition of the homes themselves is distressed. Buyers demanded a huge discount to deal with them. In SF, this market segment was largely confined to the lower price ranges and less affluent neighborhoods. Now, with the market recovery, the city's distressed home market is rapidly dwindling and should soon disappear altogether. click for larger image Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers This one statistic provides the context to everything we've seen in the market this past year: ferocious, pent-up, buyer demand met a drastically inadequate inventory of homes for sale, leading to much more competition for listings and strong upward pressure on prices. Median SF home prices vary on some of the charts above, depending on whether the price specified is for both distressed and non-distressed properties together, only non-distressed homes, for the last 4 months of 2012 or for the last quarter of the year, or whether price limits were placed on the analysis (limiting sales to under a certain sales price). This is natural: the statistics will change depending on the parameters of the analysis, and it's always useful to look at the market from slightly different angles. Statistics are generalities and should be considered approximations: How they apply to any specific property is unknown. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. © Paragon Real Estate Group, January 2013 SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | SF Neighborhoods Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

November 2012 Market Update

	October Statistics Show No Slowdown in SF Market November 2012 Market Update Last month's newsletter mentioned anecdotal word on the street that the San Francisco market might be slowing down a bit - it appeared the frenzy had diminished somewhat and that fewer listings were selling instantly with ridiculous numbers of competing offers - and the question was whether this would soon show up in the statistics. It hasn't. Though September did see a burst of new inventory that temporarily changed the equation between buyers and inventory, now with October's statistics it's clear the market is still dominated by a high demand/ low supply/ upward pressure on prices dynamic. However, it should be noted that there is a difference in market heat between a listing receiving 1 or 2 offers compared to it receiving 5 to 20 offers, however that difference might not show up in the statistics as long as one good offer is accepted. Comparing September-October sales reported to MLS with the same two months in 2011, SF dollar volume home sales were up 41%; at Paragon, our sales were up over 109%. These are not the signs of an ebbing market, nor are the statistics illustrated below. Typically, at this time of year, the number of new listings begins to markedly decline in preparation for the slowdown that usually begins at Thanksgiving and runs through mid-January. But we saw very little of the usual summer slowdown this year, so we will see how much market activity slackens during this year's holiday season. Median Sales Price Jumps in October The median home sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic and big monthly fluctuations, such as seen in October, should be taken with a grain of salt until substantiated over the longer term. Still, October saw a very large increase over the relatively static median prices seen in the previous 6 months, which followed the big jump in early 2012. Remember that sales prices reflect accepted offer activity in the 4 to 10 weeks prior. click for larger image Average Sales Price Jumps The average price is simply the total dollar volume of sales divided by the number of sales. Like median price, it is a general statistic affected by a variety of factors and often fluctuates without great significance on a monthly basis. Among other factors, a decline in distressed home sales and/or an increase in high-end home sales, both of which are occurring now in SF, can have an outsized effect on average sales price. We will see if October's big increase is sustained in future months or is simply one of those anomalous fluctuations which occur in real estate. click for larger image Buyer Demand Remains at Peak Level The percentage of listings accepting offers in October was probably about as high as it has ever been, close to twice the level of October 2011. The decline seen in September was the result of a large influx of new listings hitting the market in mid-month. click for larger image New Home Construction Blasting Off After crashing in 2008, developers are building again in a big way: over 4000 housing units are currently under construction in San Francisco, with many thousands more in the planning/permit phases. The lack of new homes on the market in the past few years has greatly impacted the supply side of the supply and demand equation. However, with the significant time lag between construction beginning on the larger projects and new condos arriving on market, the effects of this building surge will be a while before being felt. click for larger image Distressed Home Market Dwindling The city was never as hard hit as many other areas by distressed home sales (bank-owned and short sales), and now they are declining rapidly with the market recovery. The number of distressed home listings has declined by 80% since it peaked in November 2010. On this course, this segment will soon be only a negligible part of the SF market. click for larger image Listings for Sale Still Very Low After the spike in September from the large influx of new listings - September is typically the month with the greatest number of new listings - the number of homes for sale is declining again and will almost certainly continue to do so until early 2013. click for larger image Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is a measure of how long it would take to sell the current supply of listings at the existing rate of sales. In October, it was about as low as it has ever been. click for larger image Average Days on Market (DOM) Strong buyer demand plus low inventory typically leads to lower average days on market, and this is what occurred in October. click for larger image The Longer Term View Pulling back from monthly data to look at the longer term cycles of real estate gives greater context to what's happening in our current recovery. click for larger image In October, we completed quarterly updates for San Francisco's luxury home market, the SoMa-South Beach condo market, the Noe Valley-Castro-Cole Valley home market, as well as for many of the city's other neighborhoods. If you would like to review these analyses, please reply to this email with your specific request and the information will be sent to you. Except in the new-development chart, only sales reported to MLS are included in this analysis. All figures are derived from sources deemed reliable, but should be considered approximate. The data may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search | SF Neighborhoods Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

What Costs How Much Where

	What Costs How Much Where in San Francisco San Francisco Home Values By Neighborhood, Property Type & Bedroom Count MLS Sales February 1, 2012 - mid-August 2012 The charts below apply to non-distressed home sales with at least 1 car parking. Distressed home sales -- bank-owned property and short sales -- typically sell at a discount, but as the market recovers the number of such listings is rapidly declining. If a price is followed by a "k" it references thousands of dollars; if followed by an "m", it signifies millions; "N/A" means that there was not enough data to generate a reliable statistic. Where abnormal "outlier" sales were identified that significantly distorted the statistics, these were deleted from the calculations. Within each chart, the neighborhoods are sorted by median sales price, highest to lowest. Very generally speaking and varying widely by city neighborhood, thus far in 2012, San Francisco home prices have increased by 5% to 15% over 2011 values. ********** ********** More information here Trends in Dollar per Square Foot Values for Non-Distressed Houses in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods2012 Numbers reflect 2nd Quarter Sales OnlyTrends in Median Sales Prices for Non-Distressed 2-Bedroom Condos in Selected SF Neighborhoods2012 Numbers reflect 2nd Quarter Sales Only The MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. If there were 3 sales, at $1, $2 and $10, the median price would be $2. If there were 4 sales at $2, $2, $5 and $10, the median would be $3.50. Median sales price may be affected by seasonal trends, and by changes in inventory or buying trends, as well as by changes in value. AVERAGE DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, storage, unfinished attics and basements; rooms and apartments built without permit; decks, patios or yards. These figures are typically derived from appraisals or tax records, but can be unreliable, measured in different ways, or unreported altogether: thus consider square footage and $/sq.ft. figures to be very general approximations. Generally speaking, about 60-80% of listings report square footage, and dollar per square foot statistics are based solely on those listings. All things being equal, a house will have a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (because of land value), a condo will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC's will be higher than a multi-unit building's (quality of use). All things being equal, a smaller home will have a higher $/sq.ft. than a larger one. The highest dollar per square foot values in San Francisco are typically found in upper floor condos in prestige buildings with utterly spectacular views. The AVERAGE SIZE of homes of the same bedroom count may vary widely by neighborhood: for example, the average size of a 4-bedroom house in Pacific Heights is much larger than one in Noe Valley; and the average of a Marina 2-bedroom condo is larger than one in South Beach. Besides the affluence factor, the era and style of construction often play large roles in these disparities. Some neighborhoods are well known for having additional ROOMS BUILT WITHOUT PERMIT, such as the classic 1940's Sunset house with "bedrooms" and baths built out behind the garage. These additions often add value, but being unpermitted are not reflected in $/sq.ft. figures. Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in general statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, views, amenities, outdoor space, "bonus" rooms, parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so forth. Thus, how these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown. These statistics are generalities, subject to fluctuations due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value). Average figures in particular may be distorted by a few sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially where the sample size is small. Generally speaking, the fewer the sales, the less reliable the statistics. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.All information herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. © Paragon Real Estate Group, August 2012 SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

3 Recessions, 2 Bubbles and a Baby (Recovery)! August 2012 Market Report

	Three Recessions, Two Bubbles and a Baby (Recovery) 30 Years of Housing Market Cycles in San Francisco Below is a look at the past 30 years of real estate boom and bust cycles. Financial-market cycles have been around for hundreds of years, all the way back to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1600's. While future cycles will vary in their details, the causes, effects and trend lines are often quite similar. In the first 2 charts below, tracking the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the San Francisco 5-County Metro Statistical Area (MSA), the data points are for January of each year and refer to home values as a percentage of those in January 2000. January 2000 equals 100 on the trend line: 66 means prices were 66% of those in January 2000; 175 signifies prices 75% higher. ****************************** 1983 through 1995 (After recession) Boom, Decline, Doldrums In the above chart, the country is just coming out of the late seventies, early eighties recession - huge inflation, stagnant economy ("stagflation") and incredibly high interest rates (hitting 18%). As the economy recovered, the housing market started to appreciate and this surge in values began to accelerate deeper into the decade. Over 6 years, the market appreciated almost 100%. Finally, the eighties version of irrational exuberance -- junk bonds, stock market swindles, the Savings & Loan implosion, as well as the late 1989 earthquake here in the Bay Area -- ended the party. Recession arrived, home prices sank, sales activity plunged and the market stayed flat for 4 years. Still, even after the decline, home values were 70% higher than when the boom began in 1984. ****************************** 1996 through 2011 (After Recession) Boom, Bubble, Crash, Doldrums This next cycle looks similar but elongated. In 1996, after years of recession, the market suddenly took off and became frenzied -- similar to what we're experiencing today. The dotcom bubble pop and September 2001 attacks created a market hiccup, but then the subprime and refinance insanity, CDOs and derivatives, Ponzi schemes, books titled "Dow 30,000" and claims that real estate never declines, super-charged a housing bubble. From 1996 to 2006/2008, the market went through an astounding period of appreciation. (Different areas hit peak values at different times from 2006 to early 2008.) In September 2008 came the market crash. Across the country, home values fell 15% to 60%, peak to bottom, depending on the area and how badly it was affected by foreclosures -- most of San Francisco got off comparatively lightly with declines in the 15% to 25% range. The least affluent areas got hammered hardest by distressed sales and price declines; the most affluent were typically least affected. Then the market stayed flat for more than 3 years, albeit with a few short-term fluctuations. ****************************** San Francisco in 2012 A Strong but Young Recovery In 2011, San Francisco began to show signs of perking up. An improving economy and growing buyer demand coupled with a low inventory of listings began to put upward pressure on prices. In 2012, as in 1996, the market abruptly grew frenzied with competitive bidding. The city's affluent neighborhoods led the recovery, and those considered particularly desirable by newly wealthy, high-tech workers showed the largest gains. However, virtually the entire city is now experiencing a high demand-low supply dynamic. The SF median house sales price has increased dramatically in 2012, though varying widely by neighborhood. But it's still a baby recovery -- though seemingly a healthy one -- and the economy remains susceptible to big financial/political crises. However, the greater Bay Area, the state and the country are ALL beginning to show signs of a housing recovery. New home construction is rising, distressed sales are declining, the rent vs. buy equation has turned favorable to buying, and values are ticking up again. ****************************** The 1983 - 2012 Overview Up, Down, Flat, Up, Down, Flat (Repeat?) Smoothing out the bumps delivers this overview for the past 30 years. Whatever the phase of the cycle, up or down, while it's going on people think it will last forever: Every time the market crashes, the consensus becomes that real estate won't recover for decades. But the economy mends, the population grows, people start families, and repressed demand of those who want to own their own homes builds up. In the early eighties, mid-nineties and now in 2012, after 3-4 years of a recessionary housing market, this repressed demand jumps back in and prices start to rise again. ****************************** Bay Area Price Declines by Price Range This chart illustrates the huge differences in the degree of value declines suffered by different price segments of single-family housing in the Bay Area: The lower the price range, the greater the percentage of distressed sales and the larger the declines in values. San Francisco, with its expensive housing, suffered less than most places, though it still certainly suffered. Distressed sales never made up the huge percentage of sales they reached in other counties, and now, with the market rebound, distressed-home listings in SF are rapidly declining. Very generally speaking, the more affluent areas of the city saw a peak-to-bottom decline in the 15% to 20% range; the city's middle price range saw 15% to 25% declines; and its lowest price segment went down 25% to 40%. Some neighborhoods are now seeing a rapid reversal of those declines. ****************************** Is San Francisco an Exceptional Market? Comparing Rates of Appreciation & Decline with Other Market Areas Every market is different, and San Francisco is very different from the rest of the state and country, even from counties across the bay: Demographically, economically, culturally, in its severe limitations on growth -- we can't expand like Las Vegas or Phoenix or most counties -- and in its overall desirability as a place to live and work. The above charts illustrate how that translates into home values. Comparing the city, Bay Area, California and United States over the past 20 years, San Francisco home values appreciated more, declined less after the crash, and now appear to be recovering more quickly. ****************************** Note on Methods and Data Sets Calculating home price percentage changes, such as increases to or declines from peak value, are notoriously variable. The most dramatic results -- and most often quoted in the media -- come from picking the absolute highest value or lowest value month as the point of comparison. But monthly data often fluctuates dramatically without great significance, and we typically prefer quarterly or annual statistics if available. However, if a market is changing quickly, then monthly data must be used to illuminate the incipient trend. Still, sustained longer-term trends are always the most meaningful. The above charts use a variety of data sets: S&P Case-Shiller Indices, San Francisco MLS sales and median sales prices from state and national Realtor Associations. Each has its own specific market area, property types and time period tracked, and methodology. These analyses were performed in good faith to create what we believe are true, if only approximate, reflections of market trends over time. Percentage increases and declines are not created equal: A price jump from $500,000 to $1,000,000 equals a 100% increase, but falling back from $1,000,000 to $500,000, the same dollar change equals only a 50% decline. Statistics are generalities and should be considered approximations. How they apply to any specific property is unknown. All data herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision.© Paragon Real Estate Group, August 2012 SF Open Homes | Property Search | Overview Statistics | SF Demographics Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

Stuck in High Gear- SF Market Report July 2012

	San Francisco Market is Stuck July 2012 Market Update If you wish, you may jump straight to the market charts. The SF real estate market is stuck. Stuck in high gear: huge buyer demand + the lowest interest rates in history + extremely low inventory of listings = (often ferocious) competitive bidding and increasing prices. Though this trend began in the city's more affluent areas, it has now spread to virtually every neighborhood, property type and price segment. Since closed sales activity follows the time of offer acceptance by 4 to 8 weeks, the appreciation in home values has not yet shown up in the statistics for certain neighborhoods. We believe it will soon. Though this situation is to the advantage of sellers (after years of market doldrums), homebuyers might take some consolation in the fact that the last time the market dramatically shifted after a similar downturn, in 1996 after the early nineties recession, there was a market frenzy much like ours today. However, people who bought at that time still ended up doing very well by getting in at the beginning of a market rebound that went on for many years, even before the housing-bubble years began. And interest rates then were close to double today's. When reviewing the map analyses below, remember that median and average statistics are generalities, and how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Percentage changes should be taken with a grain of salt: some neighborhoods have relatively small numbers of sales, which make statistics less reliable; in other areas, it may simply be that the size/quality mix of homes sold shifted from one period to the other -- this happens. Still, overall, it is clear that the city is experiencing a general surge in home values. Explanations for the statistics referenced can be found on the Paragon website: Statistical Definitions ------------------------------------------------- SF Median House Prices and Appreciation Many of the city's neighborhoods are showing significant increases in the house median sales price, and this appears to be accelerating as we get deeper into the year. Those areas not yet showing significant change are expected to show increases in the next quarter's statistics.   click for larger image Median Condo Prices and Appreciation Many neighborhoods are showing significant increases in the condo median sales price, and this appears to be accelerating. (However, as an example of how statistics are not 100% reliable, the chart shows no appreciation for Pacific and Presidio Heights condos over the past year: we believe there was indeed significant appreciation on par with most other nearby affluent areas, but the statistic is reflecting other factors, such as different inventories for sale during the two periods being compared.) click for larger image Average Dollar per Square Foot Average dollar per square foot has been increasing in 2012, and this appears to be accelerating. click for larger image San Francisco Dollar Volume Sales Two factors affect dollar volume: the number of sales and the average sales price. In 2012 both of these statistics have been jumping in the city. click for larger image SF Unit Home Sales The number of sales reported to MLS has jumped to its highest number in over 4 years. However, there are two additional factors: new-development condo sales which are often not reported to MLS are lower than in many previous years due to the crash in building after 2008 (though this is turning around too). On the other hand, it appears that the number of "off-market" sales, not listed in or reported to MLS, has surged in 2012. click for larger image Home Sales by Property Type Houses and condos make up the great majority of sales in San Francisco, though TIC sales seem to be making a big recovery in the low-inventory situation the city has found itself in. click for larger image Home Sales by Price Range As the market has heated up, prices have risen and distressed home listings have plunged. This is causing something of a shift upward in the percentage of sales in the higher price segments. click for larger image Average Sales Price: Short Term Trend Average sales price and median sales price are different statistics, but they're both showing the same trend in San Francisco. click for larger image Price Reductions, Sales Price to List Price Percentage & Days on Market Houses selling without a price reduction are growing as a percentage of sales. They are averaging well over the asking price and selling in the shortest time period in years. click for larger image SF Luxury Home Sales Homes selling for over $1,500,000 hit their highest level in years in the second quarter of 2012. click for larger image 2-Bedroom Condo Prices: Long-Term Trends These neighborhoods have all been showing significant price appreciation since the home-price crash in 2008-2009. If this chart went back to 1995, it would show that median prices pretty much doubled between 1995 and 2000. click for larger image Expired and Withdrawn Listings As the market gets hotter, fewer listings expire without selling. Right now,the percentage of expired and withdrawn listings is incredibly low. click for larger image Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers The stronger the buyer demand and the lower the inventory, the higher the percentage of listings accepting offers. Every San Francisco property type is at its highest percentage in many years, and perhaps its highest ever. These statistics are based upon sales reported to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) by July 4th. June data reported after that date will change the numbers but probably not significantly. We are always reluctant to make too much of statistical fluctuations over relatively short periods of time, but as virtually every statistic points to the same conclusion, we believe they indicate a genuine, substantiated trend in the market. Of course, the eruption of a new financial or political crisis could always significantly disrupt the market. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. July 2012 © Paragon Real Estate Group SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search | SF Neighborhoods Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

June Market Update

	Dramatic Spike in San Francisco Home Values June 2012 Market Update Drama, drama everywhere.  There so much going on in the San Francisco homes market right now it’s a little hard to decide what to highlight in this month’s newsletter.  The supply and demand situation has created the most ferociously competitive environment for buyers in years.  There’s huge buyer demand and an extremely low inventory of homes available to be purchase.  We saw this start to build when the market turned in 2011.  It made a quantum jump early this spring.  Now we’re seeing big increases in sales prices.  Certain neighborhoods blazed the way for this recovery and they’re showing the most dramatic changes in values, but pretty much all the city’s neighborhoods are now experiencing similar supply and demand dynamics. Any data you view on recent closed sales will reflect the market heat from 4-10 weeks prior when the new listings first came on the market and offer were accepted and negotiated.  The April/May spike in values reflects the market in February, March, and early April.  If anything, the market has gotten even hotter since then.  In the past, the market has usually slowed down during the summer months.  We’ll have to wait and see if that happens this year or whether the current trend will continue. Explanations for the statistics referenced can be found on the Paragon website: Statistical Definitions -------------------------------------------------Short-Term Trends in SF Home Values Median and average sales prices are calculated in different ways, and each has its advantages and weaknesses as a statistical measure. Any statistic is a generalized, market-condition snapshot taken from a specific angle on the data. Ideally, different statistics should all point to the same conclusion regarding market trends, which is what we're seeing below. Long-Term Trends in San Francisco Home Values By some measures, property values, at least in April and May - which is a very short statistical period of time - are rapidly approaching peak values in 2007/early 2008. In the next couple quarters, it will be seen if this is simply a dramatic fluctuation or an initial indication of a sea change in market prices. Based upon what we are seeing in the statistics and on the street, we lean toward the second view. Home Value Trends by San Francisco Neighborhood Some neighborhoods, such as the greater Noe Valley area, the greater South Beach/SoMa area and the older, prestige northern neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights and Russian Hill, have been at the leading edge of the market recovery. Other areas, such as many neighborhoods in the southern districts of the city, are a step behind and price increases have not yet shown up as dramatically in the statistics. But we believe they will very soon: the markets there have become very hot as well. The Distressed Home Market in San Francisco Distressed home listings in San Francisco are rapidly declining by units and as a percentage of the overall market, and as home values and home equity increase, this trend will continue. Since distressed home sales have a negative effect on values, this dwindling will continue to strengthen the market. The New-Homes Market in San Francisco Another important dynamic is the crash in new-home construction 5 years ago and the resultant reduction in new homes (mostly new condos) now available to purchase. As these units are highly sought after, this adds to the crunch in supply and the upward pressure on prices. As the city's economy and housing market has recovered, builders are jumping back into the market in a big way, but there is a significant lag time between the decision to build and the acquiring of permits and having new condos ready to sell to eager buyers. Supply & Demand Statistics Units for sale and Months Supply of Inventory: Probably at their lowest in decades. Percentage of San Francisco Home Listings Accepting Offers In many ways, this is the single clearest statistic regarding what's going on in the market. Average days on market have also plunged in May (not shown on this chart). Mortgage Interest Rates Interest rates just hit another historic low. Someone buying the same priced home now as in 2006-2007 would have a monthly mortgage payment approximately 25% lower. The Rent vs. Buy equation in the city has changed dramatically as interest rates have dropped and apartment rents have soared. Median Home Prices Around the Bay Area This is a companion to our recent San Francisco home-values-by-neighborhood maps. SF Mapped Values These statistics are based upon sales reported to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) by June 4th. May data reported after that date will change the numbers but probably not significantly. We are always reluctant to make too much of statistical fluctuations over relatively short periods of time, but as virtually every statistic points to the same conclusion, we believe they indicate a genuine, substantiated trend in the market. Of course, the eruption of a new financial or political crisis could always significantly disrupt the market. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. June 2012 © Paragon Real Estate Group SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Calculators Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

May Market Update

	San Francisco Real Estate What You Get for How Much Where The exploding buyer demand and extraordinarily low inventory that have been the case in San Francisco since 2012 began are now showing up in broadly higher sales prices. Monthly statistics for a wide, varied market area (such as the city) should always be treated warily: they can be affected by a variety of factors, and longer-term trends are much more reliable. Still, April's median sales price for SF houses and condos jumped about 10% above March's and is now the highest in 2 years. The ferociousness of the current supply and demand dynamic is encapsulated in the large percentage of home listings across the city now receiving multiple offers almost immediately upon coming on market; some new listings have been generating literally dozens of bids. If sustained, there is no way such market conditions won't result in higher home values. Sales prices reflect the market 4 to 8 weeks in the past, i.e. that time at which the accepted offers were actually negotiated, thus April's median sales price mostly reflects the market in February and March. Below are 3 mapped analyses of recent SF home sales through the 1st quarter of 2012 by median price and average dollar per square foot. These provide an overview of comparative prices and values in the different areas of the city. They will not reflect any market-value changes showing up in April. Following the maps is a sampling of specific 2012 San Francisco home sales. Below is a random sampling of 2012 city home sales closing before April 30th. The short descriptions can only give a general sense of the location, appeal, quality, condition and amenities of each property, and the sales listed are not necessarily representative of typical values for the neighborhood and property type. With real estate, the devil is always in the details. $10,000,000 & Above $11,000,000. Pacific Heights on Broadway: 1904, 7 bedroom, 6 bath, Gold Coast mansion; 9744 square feet, $1129/sq.ft., spectacular views from almost every room, 120-seat home theater, 4 car parking. Sold off market. $10,000,000. Presidio Heights on Washington: 1910, 8 BR, 7 BA, 4-story mansion; GG bridge, bay or Presidio views from almost every room, but "home is in need of work", 3 car pkg. Original asking price of $15,000,000; 97 days on market. $4,000,000 to $7,000,000 $7,000,000. Alamo Square on Fulton: 1904, 13 BR, 14 BA "Archbishop's Mansion"; 20,000 sq.ft., $350/sq.ft., park and city views, 6-10 car parking, elevator. Original list price of $7,950,000; 164 days on market. $4,980,000. Russian Hill on Green: 1928, 3 BR, 4.5 BA, full-floor co-op; almost 360 degree views, doorman building, 2 car pkg, $3200/month HOA dues. Original list price of $5,750,000; 98 days on market. $4,795,000. Cow Hollow on Union: 5 BR, 4 BA house; 3962 sq.ft., $1210/sq.ft., large lot, pent-level with views, large south yard, 2 car pkg. Sold for 2% over asking price; 15 days on market. $4,650,000. Telegraph Hill on Montgomery: 5-level, 2-condo building (4400 sq.ft. main residence; 1021 sq.ft. lower residence); $858/sq.ft., stunning views, 3 terraces, 3 pkg. Original list price of $7,000,000; 258 days on market. $2,000,000 to $4,000,000 $3,800,000. Yerba Buena on Minna: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, St. Regis condo; 2573 sq.ft., $1477/sq.ft., spectacular views, doorman building, valet pkg, leased pkg, $2569/month HOA dues. 4% below asking price; 101 days on market. $3,400,000. Noe Valley on Fair Oaks: 1908, 5 BR, 4.5 BA Edwardian; 4126 sq.ft., $824/sq.ft., decks, garden, double lot, 2 car pkg. 100% of asking price; 8 days on market. $3,200,000. St. Francis Wood on Santa Clara: 1929, 4 BR, 5.5 BA, Spanish-Mediterranean house; 5707 sq.ft., $562/sq.ft., double lot, heated pool, 2 pkg. 8% below original price; 73 days on market. $2,995,000. Dolores Heights on Cumberland cul de sac: 1916, 3 BR, 2.5 BA, Arts & Crafts Edwardian house; 2500 sq.ft., $1198/sq.ft., "breathtaking city and bay views", 1 pkg. 100% of asking price; 10 days on market. $2,875,000: Cole Valley on Cole: 1905, 12-room, 4 BR, 3.5 BA Edwardian home; 2850 sq.ft., $1009/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 1% over asking price; 25 days on market. $2,850,000: Marina on Magnolia: year 2000, 5 BR, 4.5 BA, contemporary house; 3400 sq.ft., $838/sq.ft., water views, studio, roof deck, 2 pkg. 5% below original price. $2,725,000. Lake Street on 25th Avenue: 1909, Thomas Churchill 4 BR, 3.5 BA Edwardian; 3700 sq.ft., $736/sq.ft., overlooking GG Bridge & Marin Headlands, plans for garage. 2% below asking price; 39 days on market. $2,250,000. South Beach: 2 BR, 2 BA, corner penthouse at The Infinity; 42nd floor, panoramic views, doorman building, private deck, 1 pkg. 10% below asking price; 13 days on market.   $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 $1,865,000. Potrero Hill on 18th: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, renovated Victorian house; 2600 sq.ft., $717/sq.ft., bay and city views, 1 pkg. $1,749,000. West Portal on 15th: 2009, 4 BR, 3.5 BA house; 3321 sq.ft., $527/sq.ft., high Greenpoint rating, 2 car pkg w/charging station. 100% of asking; 6 days on market. $1,739,000. Noe Valley on Day: 1909, 8-room, 3 BR, 2.5 BA Victorian home; 2218 sq.ft. $784/sq.ft., 2 car parking. $1,693,000. Laurel Heights on Spruce: 5 BR, 3.5 BA, Historic Registry Victorian; 2662 sq.ft., $636/sq.ft., 2 pkg. Off-market sale. $1,649,000. Jackson Square: 2006, 3 BR, 2.5 BA full-floor condo; 2040 sq.ft., $808/sq.ft., private terrace, 1 pkg, city views, $898/month HOA dues. 4% below asking price; 159 days on market. $1,630,000. Golden Gate Heights on Ortega: 1974, 4 BR, 3.5 BA, contemporary house; 2900 sq.ft., $562/sq.ft., ocean-city-bridge views, 2 pkg. 4% below asking price; 147 days on market. $1,625,000. Russian Hill on Larkin: 1914, 5-room, 2 BR, 2.5 BA condo in 13 unit building; 1273 sq.ft., $1277/sq.ft., panoramic GG Bridge views, 1 pkg, $394/month HOA dues. $1,600,000. Inner Richmond on 10th: 3-level, 11-room, 4 BR, 3.5 BA house; 2577 sq.ft., $621/sq.ft., "massive contemporary remodel", 1 pkg. 7% above asking price. $1,600,000. NoPa on Shrader: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, top-floor Edwardian condo; 3169 sq.ft., $505/sq.ft., roof garden, 2 pkg. 100% of asking price; 24 days on market. $1,595,000. Eureka Valley on Grandview: 1946, 3-story, 3 BR, 2.5 BA house; 2315 sq.ft., $689/sq.ft., bay and downtown views, 2 pkg. 11% above asking price; 17 days on market. $1,565,000. Inner Mission on Hampshire: 2001, 2-story, 3 BR, 3BA, townhouse condo; 2870 sq.ft., $545/sq.ft., fantastic views, 2 terraces. 13% below original price; 65 days on market. $1,529,000. Ashbury Heights on Clifford Terrace: 3 BR, 2.5 BA house; 2135 sq.ft., $716/sq.ft., deck, fish pond, 2 car pkg. $1,500,000. Glen Park on Surrey: 2007, 3-level, 3 BR, 3 BA, contemporary house; 2521 sq.ft., $595/sq.ft., view deck, 1 pkg. 100% of asking; 40 days on market. $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 $1,496,000. Corona Heights on Saturn: 1957, 4 BR, 3 BA, contemporary house; 1900 sq.ft., $787/sq.ft., city lights view, view deck, 2 pkg. $1,465,000. Forest Hill on Taraval: detached, 4 BR, 2.5 BA, traditional house; 2426 sq.ft., $604/sq.ft., 1 pkg. Closed at 6% above asking price. $1,450,000. Nob Hill on Jones: 1929, 7-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo in Clay-Jones; 18th floor, panoramic bay and city views, 1475 sq.ft., $983/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $1142/month HOA dues. 100% of asking price; 16 days on market. $1,365,000. Presidio Heights on Sacramento: 1912, 6-room, lower-level, 3 BR, 1.5 BA, Arts & Crafts condo; 1617 sq.ft., $844/sq.ft., deeded garden, 1+ pkg. 2% below asking price; 55 days on market. $1,348,000. Eureka Valley on Hancock: 1924, 3 BR, 2 BA, Marina-style house; 2000 sq.ft., $674/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 3% below asking price; 15 days on market. $1,340,000. Financial District on Market: 2 BR, 2 BA condo in Ritz Carlton; 23rd floor, 1660 sq.ft., $807/sq.ft., Union Square & bay views, 1 pkg, $2621/month HOA dues. 1% below asking price. $1,310,000. Inner Sunset on 8th: 1922, 4 BR, 2.5 BA, Edwardian house; 2790 sq.ft., $470/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 2% over asking price; 17 days on market. $1,300,000. Anza Vista on Fortuna: 1948, 7-room, 2 BR, 2 BA house; 2337 sq.ft., $556/sq.ft., downtown views, deck, 2 pkg. 4% over asking price; 19 days on market. $1,262,000. Potrero Hill on Carolina: 2002, North-slope, 3 BR, 3 BA contemporary home; 1872 sq.ft., $674/sq.ft., stunning downtown views, 1 pkg. $1,125,000. Central Richmond on 30th: 1927, 8-room, 4 BR, 2.5 BA, Marina-style house; 2500 sq.ft., $446/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 6% below original price; 55 days on market. $1,120,000. South Beach at The Towers: year 2000, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1167 sq.ft., $960/sq.ft., bay and marina views, huge view terrace, $814/month HOA dues. 2% over asking price; 40 days on market. $1,040,000. St. Francis Wood on Yerba Buena: 1924, 3 BR, 1.5 BA house; 1612 sq.ft., $645/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 5% below asking price; 118 days on market. $1,030,000. Haight Ashbury on Masonic: top floor, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA, Victorian condo; "historically significant", 1596 sq.ft., $645/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 8% over asking price; 5 days on market. $1,020,000. Midtown Terrace on Midcrest: 1996, 6-room, 3 BR, 3.5 BA house; 1908 sq.ft., $535/sq.ft., 180 degree bay and ocean views, 2 decks, 1 pkg. 2% over asking price; 34 days on market. $1,006,000. Lone Mountain on Anza: 3 BR, 2 BA, detached, Spanish-Med house; 2028 sq.ft., $523/sq.ft., trust sale, 1 pkg. 12% below original list price; 206 days on market. $1,000,000. Noe Valley on Day: 3 BR, 2 BA, 6-room, Victorian house; 1286 sq.ft. with expansion potential, $778/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 26% over asking price; 28 days on market. $1,000,000. Marina on Beach: top floor, 1929, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA, Spanish-Med condo; 1515 sq.ft., $660/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $650/month HOA dues.   $750,000 to $999,000 $985,000. Cow Hollow on Greenwich: 3 BR, 2 BA, TIC townhouse; 1650 sq.ft., $597/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $465/month HOA dues. 100% of asking; 45 days on market. $940,000. Duboce Triangle on Henry: 1982, top-floor, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1391 sq.ft., $676/sq.ft., south deck, 1 pkg, $390/month HOA dues. 18% over asking price; 30 days on market. $905,000. Hayes Valley on Buchanan: top-floor, 3 BR, 1 BA, Edwardian condo; 1578 sq.ft., $574/sq.ft., deck, 1 pkg. 3% over asking price; 41 days on market. $873,000. Pacific Heights on Clay: 1962, top-floor, 3 BR, 2 BA condo in 12 unit bldg; 1300 sq.ft., $672/sq.ft., shared laundry, 1 pkg. 9% over asking price; 15 days on market. $850,000. Bernal Heights on Coleridge: 1947, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1358 sq.ft., $626/sq.ft., view deck, 1 pkg. 11% over asking price; 27 days on market. $845,000. Miraloma Park on Rockdale: 3 BR, 3 BA, Spanish-Med house; 1770 sq.ft., $477/sq.ft., trust sale, 2 decks, $39,000 pest report, 2 pkg. 11% below asking price; 99 days on market. $845,000. Diamond Heights on Gold Mine: 1966, 6-room, 3 BR, 2.5 BA house; 1964 sq.ft., $430/sq.ft., sweeping views, tenant occupied, 2 pkg. 108 days on market. $844,000. Mission Dolores on 17th: 1993, 6-room, 1st floor, 3 BR, 2 BA, contemporary condo; 1242 sq.ft., $680/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $300/month HOA dues. 6% over asking price; 42 days on market. $820,000. Lake Street on 25th: 1930, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1300 sq.ft., $631/sq.ft., panoramic views, 1 pkg, $460/month HOA dues. $806,000. Lake Shore on Berkshire: 1953, 6-room, split-level, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1686 sq.ft., $478/sq.ft., trust sale, 2 pkg. 3% over asking price; 33 days on market. $799,000. Central Sunset on 35th: 1932, 2 BR, 2 BA, Spanish-Med Rousseau house; 1740 sq.ft., $459/sq.ft., tenant occupied, 2 pkg. 100% of asking price. $785,000. SoMa on Natoma: 1906, top-floor, 3 BR, 2 BA, Victorian condo; 1525 sq.ft., $515/sq.ft., 2 pkg, $200/month HOA dues. 1% over asking price; 35 days on market. $780,000. South Beach on Beale: 2 BR, 2 BA condo at the BridgeView; bank sale, 1074 sq.ft., $726/sq.ft., outstanding views, 24-hour doorman, 1 pkg. 4% over asking price; 12 days on market. $775,000. Noe Valley on Douglass: 1910, 2 BR, 1 BA, Victorian house; 1050 sq.ft., $738/sq.ft., expansion potential, deck, 2 pkg. 11% below original asking price; 171 days on market. $765,000. North Beach on Francisco: 2001, 2-level, 2 BR, 2 BA, loft-style condo in the Malt House; 1033 sq.ft., $741/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $590/month HOA dues. 2% over asking price; 36 days on market. $757,000. Parkside on 22nd: 1939, tunnel-entrance, 7-room, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1509 sq.ft., $502/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 8% over asking price; 27 days on market. $755,000. Outer Richmond on 37th: 1924, 6-room, 2 BR, 2 BA house; 1750 sq.ft., $431/sq.ft., 2 pkg. 2% over asking; 29 days on market. $500,000 to $749,000 $700,000. Outer Richmond on 38th: 1925, 2 BR, 1 BA house; in-law apartment, 1450 sq.ft., $483/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $660,000. Potrero Hill on Kansas: 2007, 4-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo in 138 unit complex; 1077 sq.ft., $613/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 2% below asking price; 121 days on market. $643,500. Inner Sunset on 17th: 1926, 6-room, 2 BR, 1 BA, Marina-style condo; 1550 sq.ft., $415/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $358/month HOA dues. $620,000. Bernal Heights on Peralta: 1940, 6-room, 3 BR, 2 BA house; bonus room and bath, 1200 sq.ft., $517/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $610,000. Pacific Heights on Scott: top-floor, 4-room, 1 BR, 1 BA, Edwardian condo; 748 sq.ft., $816/sq.ft., no pkg, $250/month HOA dues. 11% over asking price; 21 days on market. $610,000. Merced Heights on Garfield: 2 BR, 1 BA house; in-law apartment, 1287 sq.ft., $474/sq.ft., ocean view, 1 pkg. $605,000. Nob Hill on Broadway: 1982, 5-room, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; bank sale, 1097 sq.ft., $552/sq.ft., patio, 1 pkg, $631/month HOA dues. 5% over asking price. $600,000. Sunnyside on Mangels: 1961, 8-room, 4 BR, 3 BA house; short sale, 1520 sq.ft., $395/sq.ft., 2 pkg. $600,000. Outer Parkside on 48th: 1954, 6-room, 3 BR, 2 BA house; 1195 sq.ft., $502/sq.ft., ocean view, big deck, 1 pkg. 100% of asking price. $595,000. Inner Richmond on 4th: 1907, 2 BR, 1 BA condo; bank sale, bonus rooms, 1314 sq.ft., $453/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $580,000. SoMa on 8th: 1997, 1 BR, 2 BA, live-work loft/condo; probate sale, 1369 sq.ft., $424/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $588,000. Outer Sunset on 43rd: 1954, 3 BR, 1.5 BA condo; 1235 Sq.ft., $476/sq.ft., ocean view, 2 pkg. 18% over asking price; 23 days on market. $560,000. Lower Pacific Heights on Bush: 2 BR, 2 BA TIC; Smart Car included in sale, 1100 sq.ft., $509/sq.ft., $406/month HOA dues. $536,000. Buena Vista Park on BV: 1986, 3-room, 1 BR, 1 BA condo; stunning downtown views, 734 sq.ft., $730/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $578 HOA dues. $510,000. Crocker Amazon on Chicago: 1925, 5-room, 2 BR, 1 BA house; 1100 sq.ft., $464/sq.ft., large lot, 2 pkg. 3% over asking price; 30 days on market. $510,000. Outer Mission on Alemany: 1940, 2 BR, 1 BA house; bonus room and bath, 1200 sq.ft., $425/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 3% over asking price; 33 days on market. Up to $499,000 $488,000. South Beach on Berry: 2007, 1 BR, 1 BA condo at Park Terrace; short sale, 803 sq.ft., $608/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $468/month HOA dues. $485,000. Excelsior on Dublin: 1944, 6-room, 2 BR, 2 BA house; trust sale, 1295 sq.ft., $375/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 22% over asking price. $460,000. Bernal Heights on Nevada: 2 BR, 2 BA house; "contractor's special", bonus rooms, 1164 sq.ft., $395/sq.ft., 1 pkg. $450,000. Ingleside Heights on Ramsell: 1961, 3 BR, 2 BA house; short sale, 1319 sq.ft., $341/sq.ft., 2 pkg. $410,000. Oceanview on Montana: 1955, 5-room, 2 BR, 1 BA house; trust sale, 1050 sq.ft., $390/sq.ft., full basement, 2 pkg. 3% over asking price. $380,000. Marina on Jefferson: 1991, 2-room condo; bank sale, 558 sq.ft., $681/sq.ft., no parking, $316/month HOA dues. $380,000. Outer Richmond on La Playa: 1982, top-floor, 2 BR, 2 BA condo; 1043 sq.ft., $364/sq.ft., ocean views, 1 pkg. 9% over asking price; 29 days on market. $348,000. Diamond Heights on Red Rock: 1972, 3-room, 1 BR, 1 BA condo in 396 unit complex; 830 sq.ft., $420/sq.ft., 1 pkg, $437/month HOA dues. $329,000. Downtown on O'Farrell: 1930, 1 BR, 1 BA, Art Deco condo in The Hamilton; 945 sq.ft., $348/sq.ft., large bonus room, no parking, $723/month HOA dues. 11% below original asking price; 246 days on market. $295,000. Bayview on Innes: 1927, 6-room, 2 BR, 1 BA house; bank sale, 1413 sq.ft., $209/sq.ft., 1 pkg. 16% over asking price; 24 days on market. BR = bedrooms, BA = baths, days on market = the days between going on market and being designated "pending sale, contingencies removed". Homes that sold at or over asking price will typically have accepted offers within 7 to 14 days of going on market (commonly after receiving multiple offers), even if it may have taken additional weeks to remove contingencies of sale and be designated "pending". Median price is that price at which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. It may be and often is affected by other factors besides changes in value, such as changes in buying patterns or available inventory. Square footage is based on "livable space", which may be measured in different ways, but should not include decks, patios, yards, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit ("bonus rooms" and "in-law apartments"). Square footage figures are often unreported or unreliable. All median and average statistics should be considered approximations, and it is unknown how they apply to any specific property. All data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and is subject to revision. May 2012 Copyright Paragon Real Estate Group   SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Online Resources | Property Search | SF Demographics Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

SOMA/South Beach Market Update

	San Francisco Real Estate Trends for the South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Mission Bay & Yerba Buena Condo Market A Market Overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group More condos sell in the South of Market (SoMa)-South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city. Of course, this is where by far the greatest number of new condos have been built since the 1990's. The market here has been heating up very rapidly, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has been rapidly declining. This is also one of the areas where high-tech buyers are concentrating in the city. Though in this analysis, the four neighborhoods are generally grouped together, there can be significant differences in market dynamics and values between them. The only way to value a particular property is by performing a specific comparative market analysis based on its location, quality and amenities. **************************************Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers This statistic is an excellent snapshot of supply and demand. In the 1st quarter of 2012 the percentage of listings accepting offers (going under contract) was at its highest point in memory, reflecting very strong buyer demand vs. a limited supply of condos for sale. Condos for Sale The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years and is not currently adequate to meet market demand. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is the lowest it has been here in years, if not ever. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low -- especially below 3 months -- would typically be considered indicative of a strong "Seller's Market," i.e. not enough inventory to satisfy buyer demand. Sales Price to List Price Percentage, Days on Market, Price Reductions & Expired Listings The market is divided into 3 groups: 1) those condos which are well priced, show well and are comprehensively marketed, which sell relatively quickly at very close to the asking price, 2) those condos that go through one or more price reductions, take much longer to sell, and close at significant discounts to the original list price, and 3) those that don't sell at all, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. The Number of Listings Accepting Offers The total number of condo listings in Greater SoMa accepting offers is at its highest in over 3 years. Average Days on Market (DOM) for Non-Distress Sales Average DOM - the time between going on market and accepting an offer -- for non-distress condo sales is at its lowest in over 2 years. (This chart shows the last 13 months.) DOM for distress sales is typically significantly longer than for non-distress sales. Distress Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area has more distress condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distress listings and sales has been declining, and most of the distress condo sales are clustered generally in the lower price ranges (see median price chart) and often in specific troubled buildings. Median Condo Sales Prices For most of the past 3 years, the median price of non-distress condos in the greater South of Market area of San Francisco has generally been oscillating between $625,000 and $700,000, while the median price for distress condos (bank-owned and short sales) has been substantially lower. Median prices of condos of varied location, size, views and quality will naturally fluctuate up and down without being particularly meaningful as pertaining to changes in value -- until the trend is consistent over the long term, minimally 3 to 4 quarters. Note that values can fluctuate dramatically, by specific location and specific building, within the 4 neighborhoods covered by this analysis. Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos in Selected SF Neighborhoods A comparison of median price trends for 2BR condos in 5 of the city's neighborhoods. Average Dollar per Square Foot The New-Development Condo Market The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which has led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Even though new construction plans appear to be now recovering in a relatively big way, this large reduction in existing new-condo inventory has significant ramifications for the supply and demand dynamic, and is a major factor in the heating up of the resale market. Sales by Price Range The greatest number of condo sales in these neighborhoods is in the $500,000 to $600,000 price range, however large numbers sell for far less (often times, distress sales) and many sell for far more. Indeed, some of the most expensive condos in the city, usually with staggering views and selling at dollar per square foot figures of $1000 and more, are found here. One condo in this area sold for $28 million last year. Longer-Term Trends for South Beach & SoMa The two following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distress condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends. Distress sales (bank and short sales) were excluded from this analysis to provide an apples to apples comparison over time. Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above ****************************** MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends. AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low. DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a "Seller's market", 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a "Buyer's market." DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks -- though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings. Median and average statistics are generalities subject to fluctuation due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value): how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when sample size is small. Sales not reported to MLS - such as many new-development condo sales -- are not included in this analysis (except in the specific chart on the SF new-development condo market). All figures should be considered approximate and are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and not warranted. We are happy to provide or direct you to the original data upon which each chart is based. Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values | SF Demographics | What Buyers Bought Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

April 2012 Market Report

	Markets Can Turn With A Vengeance April 2012 San Francisco Update Several times in the past 30 years, the San Francisco real estate market has turned up or down very quickly and very dramatically: in the mid-eighties - up; early nineties - down; 1996 - up (and up and up, except for the dotcom hiccup); 2008 - way down; and now we believe another dramatic turn up has begun. By virtually every statistical measure of supply and demand, the city's market is experiencing major acceleration. Multiple-offer, competitive-bidding situations have hit levels not seen in many years and this is putting strong upward pressure on values in many of San Francisco's neighborhoods. The more affluent areas of the city - never much impacted by distress sales and now highly sought after by buyers - are leading the recovery. We know this runs contrary to the Case-Shiller Index, but the city, and especially its higher-end segments, make up only a very small part of the Case-Shiller 5-county SF Metro Area, and currently the Index does not reflect the city's market conditions and trends. A new war or financial crisis might derail the upturn, but absent such an event, and considering the city's improving economic conditions, we expect it will continue. -------------------------------------------------Two thirds of the city's home sales now average a sales price over the original list price. The competition between motivated buyers has heated up enormously. SF is now seeing the highest percentages of listings accepting offers in memory. For all property types. TICs have made a particularly dramatic turnaround recently, probably due to the severe shortage of new and resale condos available to purchase. The lowest ratio of expired and withdrawn listings - i.e. homes that do not sell, typically due to being perceived as overpriced - in many years. The lowest Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) readings in memory. For all property types. An incredibly low level of properties available to purchase. Right now, properties are actually selling more quickly than new listings are coming on market. Average Days on Market have crashed for all property types. A substantial percentage of listings is selling virtually immediately upon coming on market (i.e. within 7-10 days). We're starting to see upward movement in values in some San Francisco neighborhoods, especially those most popular with affluent high-tech buyers. Remember that market demand may take a while to translate into changes in values, and that different city neighborhoods are recovering at different speeds. San Francisco's market is definitely recovering much more quickly than most other areas of the Bay Area, state and country. The luxury home market is also seeing significant increases in demand and upward pressure on values. The number of distress home listings is markedly decreasing (and, in any case, they are generally clustered in the less affluent neighborhoods and in the lower price ranges). If the recovery continues, fewer and fewer homes will require transfer as distress sales. In case you missed it, here is a chart from our recent analysis of San Francisco demographics. To see the entire report, click on the "SF Demographics" link in the footer. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors, and is subject to revision.April 2012 © Paragon Real Estate Group

March 2012 Market Report

	2012: An Accelerating San Francisco Market March 2012 Update "If I knew where I was going to live for the next five years or 10 years, I'd buy a home and I'd finance it with a 30-year mortgage. It's a terrific deal --- If I had a way of buying a couple hundred thousand single-family homes --- I would load up on them. And I would take mortgages out on them at very low rates --- [With] a 30-year mortgage --- it's a leveraged way of owning a very cheap asset now. That's as attractive an investment as you can make." Warren Buffet, February 27th CNBC Interview on Investing   You might remember that in my January newsletter I mentioned that the SF real estate market seemed to have turned a corner in 2011 and that conditions were similar to what they had been in 1996, when the market started accelerating after a 4-5 year down market in the early nineties.  There were big improvements last year in consumer confidence, buyer demand, and general economic conditions.  We also saw a surge in high-tech employment and wealth (which looks like it will continue to rise), sky-rocketing rents, climbing stock market values and the lowest interest rates in history. We’re further into the new year now and everything we’ve seen so far in the market is reinforcing the conclusions we came to in January.  The measurements of supply and demand - the driving force behind any changes in prices - that we’re tracking now show a market that is rapidly accelerating.  Even setting aside the statistics and numbers, this is what we’re seeing on the street, in our day-to-day business of representing clients buying and selling real estate. San Francisco has often marched to the beat of its own drum compared with other markets in the Bay Area, California, and the Nation in general, and that’s exactly what’s happening now:  our market is recovering sooner and faster than most (though we are seeing signs of recovery in other markets too).  Of course, the City itself is full of neighborhood micro-markets, which have been showing recovery at different speeds -- or in some cases, not yet recovering.  When it comes to real estate, generalizations can only get you so far.  Ultimately, it boils down to a specific home in a specific location with its specific conditions and circumstances, and the demand from buyers for such a property. All data herein is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors, and is subject to revision.March 2012 © Paragon Real Estate Group click for larger image Months' Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is a measure of how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions: the lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to supply. For every property type in San Francisco, MSI is either at its lowest reading ever, or very, very close to it. Any reading below 3-4 months of inventory is typically considered a "Sellers' market." All SF property types now register as strong Sellers' markets, though conditions do vary by neighborhood. Nationally, MSI has also fallen, but it is still over 6 months of inventory. click for larger image Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (by MONTH) This is another excellent measure of demand vs. supply - the higher the percentage, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase. This measure increased dramatically in 2011 when compared to previous years, but since 2012, it has skyrocketed to levels we can't remember ever seeing. The competition for reasonably priced, general-appeal homes is ferocious in many areas of the city, and multiple offer situations are more common now than they've been in at least 5 years. click for larger image Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers (by WEEK) Typically, in the first 6 -8 weeks of the new year, the market just starts to wake up. Not in 2012. This chart looks at the market WEEK by WEEK for the six months ending February 26th. In mid-January, demand exploded. And remember that the percentages for the last 4 months of 2011 were already much higher than in previous years. Many properties are selling immediately upon coming on market and the number of new listings is not coming close to meeting demand. This creates upward pressure on prices. click for larger image SF Homes for Sale On any given day, the inventory of listings available to purchase is dramatically below the levels of previous years, typically by 30%-50%. And yet the number of highly qualified and motivated buyers entering the market is increasing. Year over year, February's closed unit sales were up about 14%, but on a hugely reduced inventory of available listings. If inventory was nearer normal levels, the number of sales would be much higher. In the meantime, the market has become very competitive in many parts in the city. click for larger image Case-Shiller High-Tier Home Price Index This Index ended 2011 pretty much where it began. The Index tracks house sales in a 5-county SF "Metro Area", of which the city's sales are only a small percentage. Even as our market has begun a recovery, the Index is pulled down by the other counties' market conditions (not as positive as the city's). The C-S High-Tier Price Index applies to the city best, but it still doesn't apply all that well: for the 5-county Metro Area, the top third tier of sales in December 2011 started at $573,000; the city's top third last year started at $860,000. (And it's much higher in the city's central and northern districts.) The higher the price segment, the less affected it is by distress sales; such sales cluster in the less affluent segments and significantly depress market conditions there. The 2012 SF market may be in a similar place to that of 1996, i.e. starting to accelerate after 4-5 years of decline or doldrums. click for larger image Noe Valley-Castro-Cole Valley Market Realtor District 5, in the center of the city, is one of the areas where the market has changed most dramatically - to some extent, due to being highly sought after by high-tech employees working both inside and outside the city. Though median sales price is an imperfect signifier of changes in values, and can fluctuate for a number of reasons, we believe in this case it generally reflects market reality. Huge buyer demand and extremely low inventory in District 5 are pushing prices higher: the median sales prices for both houses and condos have risen to their highest points since 2008. For our complete report: SF District 5 Analysis click for larger image SoMa-South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay The greater South of Market area is another one of the city's markets that is noticeably heating up - again, to a large extent, due to surging high-tech employment and wealth. The supply of brand new condos for sale has dwindled since 2008, helping to create the biggest inventory crunch since this area started to be developed in the mid-nineties. This is exerting upward pressure on prices. For our complete report: SoMa-South Beach Market Analysis click for larger image Average Days on Market (DOM) This statistic is easily distorted by a relatively small number of sales that sell after being on the market for a long time, and large fluctuations are not unusual. It certainly doesn't reflect the average days on market for well-priced, well-prepared, well-marketed, general-appeal homes, which often accept offers within 1 or 2 weeks of going on market. Still, for what it's worth, average DOM fell to its lowest point in years in February. click for larger image SF Statistics by Neighborhood We recently completed our semi-annual review of non-distress home sales by neighborhood; property type; bedroom count; low, high and median price; average size and average dollar per square foot. (Mixing distress and non-distress sales creates misleading statistics for both categories, so we separate them out.) This is just one of eight charts. For our complete report: San Francisco Neighborhood Values click for larger image What SF Buyers Bought in 2011 If you didn't see our data-mining analysis of 2011 home sales in San Francisco, here is one panel of 14. You can find the full report, full of surprising details, here: What Buyers Bought in 2011 click for larger image Mortgage Interest Rates The impact that lower interest rates have on the ongoing cost of home ownership, especially when doing a rent vs. buy analysis in a city of soaring rents, can't be overstated. Here, once again, is a graph of just how dramatic the changes have been in recent years. Courtesy of Julian Hebron of RPM Mortgage. SF Open Homes | Property Search No one knows San Francisco real estate better than we do. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

What Buyers Bought in San Francisco - 2011 Recap

	From Penthouses to Fixer-Uppers What Did San Francisco Home-Buyers Purchase in 2011? Of all the homes bought and sold in San Francisco in 2011: How many had Golden Gate, Bay Bridge, downtown or ocean views? How many were Victorian, Edwardian, Art Deco, Spanish Mediterranean or brand spanking new? How many had elevators or pools, wine cellars, doorpersons or in-law apartments? How many were probate sales, bank sales or short sales? And what were the biggest sales in the Sunset, Noe Valley, SoMa and Pacific Heights? We data-mined all of 2011's MLS sales to answer these questions and more. We hope you find the details as interesting as we did. All data herein is from sources deemed (at least somewhat) reliable - i.e. the information input by listing agents regarding their own listings -- but may contain errors and omissions, and is subject to revision. These charts do not include sales unreported to MLS.  SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/

District 5 (Noe, Castro, Haight) Update - February 2012

	San Francisco Residential Market Trends in Realtor District 5: Noe/ Castro/ Haight A statistical market overview by the Paragon Real Estate Group for Noe Valley, Eureka Valley & the Castro, Cole Valley, Mission Dolores, Haight Ashbury, Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Glen Park, Twin Peaks & the Duboce Triangle Below are a variety of charts detailing market conditions and trends in the neighborhoods of San Francisco's central Realtor District 5. District 5 is one of the more homogeneous districts in San Francisco in terms of property values, but still any analysis of an area with so many properties of different type, location, condition and quality can only be a very general overview. District 5 soared in value between 1996 and 2008 and was one of the last districts to peak in value before the financial markets meltdown in September 2008. Values then fell about 20% very quickly and then stabilized in 2009 and 2010. With the surge in high-tech buyers in 2011, many of whom wish to be close to highways to the peninsula, activity in this district has picked up significantly. It's a very hot market for appealing, well-priced homes, and we are seeing a good number selling very quickly in multiple offer situations. This dynamic is beginning to exert upward pressure on prices. Generally speaking, short-term fluctuations up and down -- especially of median price and dollar per square foot -- are relatively meaningless unless continuing for an extended period of time. In real estate, the longer term trends, seen across a wide variety of statistical measurements, are the meaningful ones. ****************************** Sales Prices to List Prices, Days on Market, Price Reductions & Expired Listings Most of the homes that sell in District 5 sell quickly for very close (or even a little over) asking price. Those listings that go through one or more price reductions take much longer to sell and sell at a large discount to original list price. And even in a strong market, not everything sells -- a fair percentage of listings expire or are withdrawn without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. Well-priced, well-prepared, comprehensively marketed homes in this area are often accepting offers within 1 or 2 weeks of going on market. Median House & Condo Sales Prices in District 5 For the past 2 plus years, the median price of houses in District 5 has generally been oscillating between $1,200,000 & $1,350,000 and for condos between $750,000 and $825,000. Median prices of homes of varied location, size and quality will naturally fluctuate without being particularly meaningful as pertaining to changes in value -- until the trend up or down is consistent over the long term (minimally 3 to 4 quarters). In the 4th Quarter of 2011, the median house price hit its highest point since 2008. Note that in the 3rd quarter the median price for condos in District 5 suddenly fell 12%, which seems odd considering what was said earlier about District 5 being a hot market. But this is a perfect example of why median prices cannot be relied upon as perfect indicators of changes in value -- especially in short-term fluctuations -- because it just so happened that the average size of condos sold in District 5 in the 3rd quarter also dropped 12% from the 2nd quarter. Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers An excellent statistical snapshot of supply and demand. These two charts, the first by quarter through 2011, and then the second by WEEK for the 6 months ending 2/5/12 reflect the surging buyer demand vs. a limited supply of homes for sale. The percentage was very high in 2011 and then blasted off with start of 2012. By Quarter through End of 2011 BY Week for Six Months Ending February 5, 2012 -- Incredible Surge since the Beginning of 2012 Average Dollar per Square Foot for Houses & Condos Both houses and condos in District 5 have generally been oscillating up and down within a a relatively narrow $50 band of average dollar per square foot value since the beginning of 2009. Homes for Sale on the Last Day of the Month The very, very low inventory of homes available to purchase through MLS is clearly illustrated in this chart. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) MSI is at an extremely low level of inventory for houses and condos, a reading that would typically be considered indicative of a strong "Seller's Market." Indeed anything under 3-4 months is usually considered a Seller's Market. Longer-Term Trends The following sample analyses delineate average sales price (which is different from median sales price) and average dollar per square foot by year since 1995. When neighborhoods are grouped together below, it is because they generally share similar market values in particular property types. Sometimes it's valuable to step back for a longer term view of market trends. Annual statistics, because of the much greater amount of data, are typically much more reliable than (fluctuating) quarterly or monthly stats. Noe & Eureka Valleys: Higher-End House Sales, Values over Time This is just a snapshot of a particular segment of the market in two of the biggest neighborhoods of District 5: Noe Valley and Eureka Valley. It should be noted that many houses do also sell for higher prices here than in price parameters set in the chart below. ****************************** MEDIAN SALES PRICE is that price at which half the sales occur for more and half for less. It can be, and often is, affected by other factors besides changes in market values, such as short-term or seasonal changes in inventory or buying trends. Though often quoted in the media as such, the median sales price is NOT like the price for a share of stock, i.e. a definitive reflection of value and changes in value, and monthly fluctuations are generally meaningless. If market values are truly changing, the median price will consistently rise or sink over a longer term than just 2 or 3 months, and also be supported by other supply and demand statistical trends. AVERAGE SALES PRICE is calculated by adding up all the sales prices and dividing by the number of sales. It is different from median sales price, but like medians, averages can be affected by other factors besides changes in value. For example, averages may be distorted by a few sales that are abnormally high or low, especially when the number of sales is low. DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) are the number of days between a listing going on market and accepting an offer. The lower the average days on market figure, typically the stronger the buyer demand and the hotter the market. MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI) reflects the number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes for sale at current market conditions. The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply and the hotter the market. Typically, below 3-4 months of inventory is considered a "Seller's market", 4-6 months a relatively balanced market, and 7 months and above, a "Buyer's market." DOLLAR PER SQUARE FOOT ($/sqft) is based upon the home's interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, lot size, or patios and decks -- though all these can still add value to a home. These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable or unreported altogether. All things being equal, a house will sell for a higher dollar per square foot than a condo (due to land value), a condo higher than a TIC (quality of title), and a TIC higher than a multi-unit building (quality of use). Everything being equal, a smaller home will sell for a higher $/sqft than a larger one. (However, things are rarely equal in real estate.) There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when the total number of sales is small. Location, condition, amenities, parking, views, lot size & outdoor space all affect $/sqft home values. Typically, the highest dollar per square foot figures in San Francisco are achieved by penthouse condos with utterly spectacular views in prestige buildings. District 5: includes the following neighborhoods: Noe Valley, Eureka Valley (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights Median and average statistics are generalities subject to fluctuation due to a variety of reasons (besides changes in value): how they apply to any specific property is unknown. Averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm, especially when sample size is small. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in this analysis. All figures should be considered approximate and are derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and not warranted. We are happy to provide or direct you to the original data upon which each chart is based.  SF Open Homes | Market Dynamics Charts | Property Search | Neighborhood Values Contact me anytime for assistance, information and resources regarding living in San Francisco. Paragon Real Estate Group (415)738-7000 | (415)565-0500 | www.paragon-re.com Simone Koga DRE# 01897985 1400 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Direct (415) 738-7209 Fax (415) 738-7259 Simone@SimoneKoga.com http://simonekoga.com/