A Hot San Francisco Market Gets Hotter
In 2012, the market turned with a vengeance and grew very hot very quickly. Now in 2013 it has grown even hotter. Recent deal-making stories almost make the seemingly crazy, multiple-offer tales of last year appear sedate. The supply of listings is drastically low against buyer demand, and the pace of price appreciation looks to be accelerating. Some city neighborhoods appear to be surpassing the previous peak values reached in 2007-2008. As seen below, the first quarter’s numbers reveal a big increase in home values year over year; the month of March alone saw a particularly big jump of almost 9% above February’s median price.
March sales prices reflect the heat of the market 4-8 weeks earlier, when the offers were actually negotiated. Much of the first quarter’s sales data reflects offers negotiated in late 2012. In a rapidly changing market, we’re always looking in the rearview mirror.
How Does Supply & Demand Affect San Francisco Home Prices?
The past 18 months give a text book example of how the supply and demand dynamic affects home values. Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) measures the strength of buyer demand against the available inventory of homes to purchase: the lower the MSI, the hotter the market. The hotter the market, the greater the upward pressure on prices.
Median Home Sales Prices by Month
One can see the acceleration in monthly median sales price in the chart above. March’s was almost 9% above February’s and about 30% above March 2012.
And this chart below breaks out the median sales prices of houses and condos separately by quarter, but looks at non-distressed property sales only. Distressed property sales, by their nature and because they’ve always clustered at the lower price ranges, lower median sales significantly – though that entire market segment is in rapid decline.
The Percentage of Listings Selling Over & Under List Price
As the market has strengthened, the percentage of SF homes selling for over -- and sometimes far over -- list price, has soared to almost unbelievable levels. In the last 2 months, 30% of SF house sales have sold for 15% or more above asking price.
Inventory of Listings Available to Purchase
This chart above shows the huge decline in inventory since the market turnaround began. Typically, we see a surge in early spring. Not this year, at least not so far.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers is another excellent indicator of demand vs. supply, and it is now at the highest levels in memory for virtually all property types: houses, condos, TICs and the luxury home segment.
Average Days on Market
Generally speaking, the hotter the market, the faster listings go into contract and that is what we are indeed seeing now.
Months Supply of Inventory
This chart above breaks out the details of the huge decline in Months Supply of Inventory since the market started to recover.
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