More condos sell in San Francisco's South of Market (SoMa), South Beach, Yerba Buena and Mission Bay neighborhoods than anyplace else in the city: This is where by far the greatest number of new condos has been built in the last 20 years. The market here heated up very rapidly in 2012, especially as the number of brand new condos on the market has dwindled (contributing to the severe inventory crunch). This area is one of the world centers for high-tech and bio-tech businesses and homebuyers, and the ferocious demand competing for the very limited inventory have caused prices to jump dramatically.
Luxury condos here, in high prestige buildings, typically with spectacular views, sell for among the highest dollar per square foot values in the city. The largest sale reported to MLS in 2012 was $7,850,000 for a unit at the Millennium.
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Sales by Price Range
Long-Term Trends in Values
The following charts track average sales price and average dollar per square foot for non-distressed condo sales by year since 1995, specifically for the South Beach/Yerba Buena and SoMa neighborhoods. Remember that average sales price is different from median sales price (which is used more often), but is just another way to look at long-term market trends.
Here, we've limited the analyses to sales under $1,800,000: though this area has a large luxury component, the very high-end sales generally distort the averages for the vast majority of sales.
Sales Over, Under and At List Price
As the market gets hotter, the percentage of listings selling for over asking price increases.
Median Sales Price Trends for 2-Bedroom Condos
A comparison of Median Price trends for 2-BR condos in 5 of the city's neighborhoods. All 5 have been showing median price appreciation, but none more so than the South Beach and Yerba Buena neighborhoods.
Number of Listings Sold
Very strong unit sales numbers in recent quarters and they would have been significantly higher if there were more listings available to buy. Distressed condo sales are rapidly declining as the market recovery has gained momentum.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
An excellent statistic for measuring buyer demand against supply of inventory. The percentage is now at the highest point in memory.
Condos for Sale
The inventory of condos listed for sale through MLS is far below that of previous years and is seriously inadequate to meet market demand.
The New-Development Condo Market
The vast majority of new-condo construction over the past 15 years has been in this greater area: it's been estimated that over 10,000 were built here in the first 10 years of the century. The 2008 financial crisis caused new condo construction to crash in SF, which led to large declines in new-condo listings and sales. Now, new construction is recovering in a big way -- many big new projects are planned by some very well-known developers -- but it will probably take about 2 years, more or less, before we see a large quantity of newly built condos coming on the market.
Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)
The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to the supply of homes for sale. MSI readings this low -- below 2 months - is considered to be indicative of a strong "Seller's Market."
Condo Sales $1,000,000 & Above
The number of condos selling for $1m and above is at its highest point in years: Sales increased in the 4th quarter even as inventory fell. Demand for higher-end condos in the best buildings is quite competitive now.
Distressed Condo Listings & Sales in the Greater SoMa Area
Because so many large developments were built here in the last 15 years, this area had more distressed condo sales (bank-owned property sales and short sales) than any other area of the city. However, the number of distressed listings and sales has been rapidly declining with the market turnaround and looks to disappear completely in the near future.
